Shoreline Vulnerability and Habitat Dynamics in Response Sea Level Rise in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System Grant uri icon

abstract

  • North Carolina's estuarine ecosystems are a product of the last post-glacial rise in sea level, flooding coastal plain drainage systems. However, the continued rise in sea level and flooding of the continent will continue to impact ecological resources and coastal communities. To understand the ecological effects of rising sea level on estuarine shorelines, it is imperative to focus on the gradient between shallow subtidal conditions in estuaries to the landward position of wetlands and uplands that are not directly influenced by sea level. This gradient within the Pamlico Sound region encompasses areas ranging from eroding, high-energy shorelines to well protected freshwater swamps and marshes along tributary drainages. Superimposed on these natural gradients are a host of human activities and land uses that will be affected by rising sea level and by interventions of society in response to both shoreline retreat and a chronically changing hydrology. It is the interaction of the natural patterns and human interventions that raises a number of management questions, and leads to a range of options in the way that coastal ecosystems are managed. The proposed research will provide an ecological framework of shoreline processes in response to modeling efforts for estuarine sea level changes and the near shore wave environment. This research will take full advantage of the existing data available at East Carolina University and current understanding of ecological/geological processes based on decades of continued research conducted by the PI's. To do so, this project will first provide a rough classification of shoreline type, including ecosystem state (wetland forest, organic high marsh, etc.) and a scale of alteration vulnerability, a process that has been ongoing for -30 years, but needs to be improved and adapted in ways that both (1) interfaces with ongoing efforts to develop physical/hydrodynamic models and (2) addresses critical management issues identified above. The rationale for the classification is to organize the complexity of features that appear to be responsible for ecological conditions in this large area; including tides, wind, waves, shoreline geometry, sediment type, etc. This initial framework is intended to provide a platform for hind casting factors that have led to a particular type of estuarine margin with the assumption that future conditions are predictable from the inferred, past processes. In some cases, the hydrodynamic and topographic models developed by the NOAA modeling team will provide critical information for the framework. In other cases, we anticipate that inferred ecological processes will reveal gaps that may require model recalibration. In any case, interaction between the two groups (i.e., the PI's of this proposal and the EESLR research team) will be essential for developing realistic output that will be useful to proactive management and regulatory protection.

date/time interval

  • August 2005 - July 2009