Ecosystem mismatch in fisheries vulnerability to climate Grant uri icon

abstract

  • Using the U.S. Northeast (i.e., Mid-Atlantic through New England) and West Coast as study regions, we propose to determine if habitat requirements at certain life stages of a species will impact its adaptability to climate change. A focus throughout this analysis will be on connectivity between life stages, such as spawning grounds to juvenile nursery areas, and how climate change impacts the completion of a species lifecycle. The proposed study begins with broad-qualitative vulnerability analysis of many species' (Step 1, below), then progresses to empirical distribution analysis across life stages (Step 2), and finally moves toward mechanistic analyses of how exposure to climate change might vary across life stages or how it might alter connectivity between spawning adults and productive nurseries (Steps 2 and 3). We will conclude the study by returning to Step 1 and developing a decision tree framework that assesses climate change impacts on lifecycle closure across species. Specifically, we propose to (1) Conduct a qualitative analysis on species vulnerability to climate change, that is based on connectivity between life stages. (2) For selected focal species, empirically estimate life stage specific geographic constraints. We will estimate the spatio-temporal variability of species distributions across different life stages using long-term annual survey data. (3) Quantify projected species exposure to climate change, specific to life-stages, by overlapping historic distributions with high-resolutions climate projection data. This will allow mismatches to be identified between climate change exposure and geographic constraints at specific life stages. (4) Finally, for a select group of data-rich species, model connectivity between adult and nursery habitats under recent-historic and future climates using a larval dispersal model. This will mechanistically determine what might drive mismatches between adult and early-life stage habitat requirements.

date/time interval

  • September 2020 - March 2025